Just as many observers had feared, the defeated Union of Islamic Courts, a group that just months ago controlled of most of Somalia, has begun an Iraq-style insurgency against occupying Ethiopian forces. These attacks generally take the form of targeted bombings, although some recent attacks have involved gunmen, including one attack on a Somali police station. It has also attempted assassinations on the prime minister and other important Transitional Federal Government (TFG) officials, so far wounding the presidential spokesman and killing a district head.

The Ethiopian peacekeeping forces have not made any friends through their retaliatory attacks, many of which have killed civilians. They are further unpopular due to their house searches and seizures of weapons caches, and the Islamic Courts, the powerful Hawiye clan and now the United Nations Security Council want them out of the country as soon as possible. The first two groups have even refused to meet for reconciliation conferences until the Ethiopians leave, which may further delay or even block the already overdue reconciliation conference. Another condition of the Islamic Courts, that the conference take place on neutral ground (i.e. not Mogadishu), could also prove problematic.

The humanitarian situation has become even more desperate. As food stores dwindle due to poor rainfall and increased displacement of farmers, the acute malnutrition rate has climbed over 15% in some parts of the country. An outbreak of diarrhea has made the shortages felt even more, especially among children. Even worse, pirates on the coast have hijacked a number of ships making food aid deliveries, jeopardizing that source of assistance.

Although the increased incidence of attacks and terrifying state of health seem causes for worry about the future of Somalia, other aspects give reason for optimism. In early July, the African Union peacekeeping force will see an increase in its numbers, as Burundian troops join the 1600 Ugandans already stationed in Somalia. The force has successfully disarmed some of the former warlords and has not been targeted by the insurgency since the uproar after killing four Ugandan soldiers, which makes it at least a partial success. The government is also training policemen in Puntland, the relatively stable autonomous region. It is hoped that the piracy will stop once the police and peacekeepers are in place, as it did when the Islamic Courts were in power. Large aid packages contingent on the peacekeeping forces’ deployment will also soon begin to arrive.

On the reconciliation side, the Transitional Federal Government plans to discharge those fighters captured and pardon insurgents not “involved in international terrorism”. It just released 64 Islamists on Wednesday, demonstrating its commitment to clemency. This offer might not have been possible if the Union of Islamic Courts and its sponsored insurgents had committed major atrocities (other than an alleged use of 400 child soldiers) as other rebel forces in recent African civil wars have. Thus insurgents may be able to be integrated into a new Somali government, and true reconciliation may be possible. Furthermore, most of the Islamic Courts leaders are moderates and will be willing to take part in a moderate Muslim government. Although the conditions may seem dismal now, there still exist reasons for hope after 16 years of lawlessness.

-Jeff Weaver